real estate logistics warehouse

Logistics real estate pierces in the face of corporate real estate

Logistics real estate, a sector that continues to grow despite the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the beginning of this unprecedented crisis, corporate real estate has been going through a difficult period. At the European level, this is reflected in statistics and in the distribution of supply and demand. If offices and businesses are in a difficult situation… Logistics warehouses have never had such an active period. A study published by Cushman and Wakefield provides an overview of the situation sector by sector on European soil.

Logistics real estate, the boom in the face of the pandemic

If logistics real estate is experiencing such an increase, this is mainly due to the consequences of COVID-19. On French soil, but also in other European countries, containment has helped to boost the impulse of dematerialized trade. E-commerce is indeed one of the sectors that emerges the most victorious from this period so difficult for traditional businesses. With the presence of giants like Amazon, e-commerce allows you to receive everyday products directly at home.

Thus, e-commerce players store products in warehouses,which allow to deliver more quickly to the end customer. The need for spacious space and optimized for this type of operation. Undeniably, with the rise of e-commerce, demand is growing. This allows rents to grow and yields to be cut again in 2021. By 2020, logistics real estate is the only asset class to experience an increase in rents.

Ecommerce Logistics Warehouse
With the pandemic, e-commerce has grown significantly.

Indeed, in Europe, this increase in rents is 0.8% in the third quarter of 2020, an increase of 1.9% over the whole year. France, on the other hand, is one of the fastest growing countries, with an annual increase of 2.6%. This is due in particular to very high demand in the face of weak supply.

Especially since the presence of these warehouses is rare in the heart of cities. Indeed, it is necessary to have an important space to build large premises, and to allow the passage of delivery trucks. A reflection that tends to excentrate them so as not to impact the lives of the inhabitants of metropolis.

Offices and shops, demand down in the face of logistics real estate

The corporate real estate market in Europe continues to be affected by the pandemic in the fourth quarter. This echoes directly with health constraints and restrictions such as the closure of shops… But also successive containments or the establishment of curfews, as is currently the case in France. In the cities most popular with tourists, this situation impacts the economic activity of several pillars.

Thus, the office market in Europe is showing resilience,but the European average is declining. Indeed, there was a one-third drop in applications in the year 2020. This trend continues to decline in the fourth quarter of 2020. Thus, this market sees a 0.5% decrease in rent premium quarter-on-quarter and -0.8% year-on-year. This is the weakest annual performance since the second quarter of 2010.

For businesses, the situation is also worrying. Faced with the closure of all non-essential shops, more closures than creations. This causes a significant drop in rents: -2.6% in the 4th quarter for commercial areas. This figure exacerbates the annual decline in values to -10.6%. This is the worst performance since 1990, the year of the first data.

Local business business offices
Offices and businesses are in a difficult situation.

The post-pandemic market situation, an uncertain situation

With the many aid measures put in place by the Government and the regions, the situation of businesses is somewhat distorted. Indeed, net rents are still in the red in the fourth quarter of 2020. And this situation does not seem to be going down. The pandemic continues in France and Europe, which does not help to revive the economy. Even though logistics real estate has been on the rise since the beginning of the pandemic, this is not enough to offset the net loss in the corporate real estate market.

E-commerce, which was experiencing a steady progression before the pandemic, really took off with the pandemic. In the face of this, local businesses are also embarking on this sector, thanks in particular to the marketplaces. Platforms that make it easy to sell your products. How will logistics real estate evolve in the face of the progress of the pandemic? Will the situation in corporate real estate stabilize and reverse in the short, medium, or long term?

Sources:

  1. Logistics sector distinguishes itself from trade and offices that are reeling from the shock of the current pandemic, Cushman and Wakefield Release of February 18, 2021
  2. [Etude] Warehouse market in France: the rental, at the penalty Decision Purchases published on October 27, 2020
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